Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.