Donald Trump's Ukrainian Peace Plan Constitutes a Gift to Putin

For a brief period, Trump appeared to adopt a strong stance concerning Ukraine. Following making warnings of "severe consequences" last August should Russia's president persisted blocking ceasefire negotiations, he eventually enacted substantial sanctions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously impacted Putin's capacity to finance his war effort in the region.

Yet, with his latest detailed peace proposal for the conflict, that was drafted by American and Russian representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has seemingly returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Invasion

This initiative would effectively favor the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while putting the country's democracy in danger. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", large portions of the plan actually compromise that very independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his real-estate past, Trump seems to consider the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, as if giving Putin a section of Ukraine's land will appease the ruler. Yet, Russia's invasion is not merely about occupying a damaged swath of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's apparent desire to eliminate it so it no longer functions as an enticing model for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that Putin's growing autocracy prevents them.

Land Concessions

While freezing in place the currently separated oblasts of these areas, Trump's plan would require the nation to surrender all of Donetsk region. Aside from rewarding Russia with land that its forces have been unable to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of warfare, this surrender would make Ukraine's defenses dangerously undermined.

Donetsk is the place of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that are a critical obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, leaving Putin a unobstructed way to Kyiv if he subsequently decide to renew the hostilities.

Military Limitations

Then, in a move that would make renewed hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to cut the numbers of its troops from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's initiative imposes no similar constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize Ukraine's legitimate administration as radicals, the plan declares: "Any extremist ideology and practices must be opposed and banned." As if to highlight this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump sets no condition that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by holding elections in his own country.

Defense Assurances

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia promise not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". However given that Putin has breached equivalent agreements in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to honor Ukraine's borders in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied areas in the Donbas to the government – how should anyone trust Putin this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western protection assurances. While the plan warns of a "immediate unified military response" in case the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive dependable defense commitments", the particulars vary from fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not only deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from deploying military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the security presence, presumptively commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to prevent Russia from restoring his diminished forces, re-equipping, and attacking again.

Global Concern

Another parallel deal reportedly would provide the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "serious, intentional, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. Yet unlike a capable national defense – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the dedication of alliance members, such as the US administration, to act militarily to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not